大有期货：‌美联储降息预期有支撑 贵金属大涨后待整理

Macro News - The U.S. has initiated a Section 232 investigation into imports of medical devices, robots, and industrial machinery, potentially leading to tariff actions against these industries [1] - The U.S. has officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15% [1] - A Chinese central bank advisor has called for fiscal support for the real estate sector, and China has announced measures to promote service exports [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, describing the current situation as challenging [1] - Powell stated that there are no significant financial stability risks at present [1] - Fed Vice Chair Bowman suggested that the Fed may act slowly in supporting the job market, but may need to accelerate rate cuts if demand weakens and layoffs begin [1] - President Trump condemned Western nations' recognition of Palestine during a speech at the United Nations, highlighting the U.S.'s isolation in its support for Israel [1] - S&P Global's survey revealed that the U.S. September composite PMI fell from 54.6 to 53.6, with manufacturing PMI dropping from 53.0 to 52.0, and service PMI slightly declining from 54.5 to 53.9, indicating a slowdown in business activity for the second consecutive month [1] Institutional Perspectives - Recent inflation risks in the U.S. are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, despite the Fed Chair emphasizing the weakening job market [2] - There is a divergence of opinions within the Fed regarding inflation concerns, with some officials believing that despite Trump's tariff measures not raising prices as expected, inflation risks remain [2] - The Fed's hesitance has caused short-term volatility in precious metals, but no clear trend reversal is evident [2] - Economic data indicates a slowdown in U.S. business activity for two consecutive months, with the OECD slightly upgrading its U.S. economic forecast but still expecting significant growth deceleration compared to last year [2] - Market expectations suggest that the U.S. will implement significant rate cuts within the year, providing some support for precious metals, which may require consolidation after recent gains [2]