沥青供需两弱 预计期货价格中枢跟随成本端波动

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.27% to 3439.00 yuan/ton as of September 25 [1] Industry Summary - As of the week ending September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, an increase of 5.7% week-on-week. The weekly asphalt production reached 701,000 tons, up 15.5% from the previous week [2] - The sample shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons for the week ending September 23, reflecting a 9.0% increase week-on-week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the warehouse receipts for petroleum asphalt futures were 18,940 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the factory warehouse receipts decreased by 2,140 tons to 37,040 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guosen Futures noted that the daily operating load of asphalt in China was 45.03% as of September 24, a decrease of 3.80% from the previous Wednesday. The demand side shows weak characteristics, with many road construction projects experiencing delays, leading to a slow consumption pace of asphalt. Overall demand remains weak, with downstream users and traders adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, primarily purchasing as needed. Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are influencing asphalt futures prices [3] - Jianxin Futures indicated that expectations of a shift to residual oil production by Haishi Chemical and some refineries' plans to reduce output may cut supply. However, the asphalt production plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Chemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical are being implemented, alongside stable operations at Jin Cheng Chemical and Dongming Chemical. This is expected to lead to a continued increase in the operating load of asphalt facilities. Demand remains stable, with northern and central markets benefiting from favorable weather and project acceleration, while southern regions are affected by typhoon weather [3]