Is It Time to Buy Rivian Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's future depends on scaling R2 production while managing widening losses, which are testing investor patience [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Rivian reported revenue of approximately $1.3 billion, an increase from about $1.2 billion year-over-year, but gross profit returned to a loss due to decreased production and rising costs [4]. - The company produced 5,979 vehicles and delivered 10,661, with output limited by supply chain complexities [4]. - Rivian maintained its full-year delivery guidance at 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles but widened its 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss outlook to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion [5]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - Management is targeting cost reductions while preparing for the next wave of vehicles, with a notable improvement in the balance sheet following a $1 billion equity investment from Volkswagen [6]. - Rivian has begun installing manufacturing equipment for the new R2 vehicle, which is crucial for future production [7]. - The R2 vehicle is expected to launch on time, with plans to increase annual production capacity to approximately 215,000 units [9]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Rivian's stock is currently priced for substantial profitability, despite the company being far from achieving it [8]. - The investment case relies heavily on the successful execution of the R2 launch and the ability to manage cash burn while investing in product and manufacturing [10]. - The company has a compelling product and strategic support from Volkswagen, but the investment outlook is contingent on developments in 2026 and 2027 [11].