瑞银：美元2025Q4延续弱势，2026年末或迎复苏拐点

Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest global forex strategy report predicts a continuation of the weak dollar trend into Q4 2025, with a potential turning point by the end of 2026, contrary to previous market expectations of a prolonged downtrend [1] Summary by Sections Dollar Forecast - The report suggests that the U.S. may lower interest rates by more than the expected 75 basis points in 2025, influenced by the nomination of a new Fed chair, which could lead to more aggressive cuts in 2026, potentially pushing one-year forward rates below 3.00% [1] - A persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market is expected to suppress front-end Treasury yields, directly contributing to the dollar's weakness [1] - The global consensus on "de-dollarization" is strengthening, which structurally limits the dollar's rebound potential [1] Currency Pair Analysis - Euro to Dollar: Q4 target set at 1.2300, with a fluctuation range of 1.1500-1.2300. If U.S. employment data exceeds expectations, it may raise doubts about two rate cuts by the Fed in Q4, potentially pushing the exchange rate to the lower limit of the range. However, structural hedging demand is expected to prevent excessive dollar rebounds, suggesting buying opportunities during declines [1] - Dollar to Yen: Q4 target at 143.00, with a range of 143.00-151.00. A dovish stance from the Bank of Japan and a low volatility environment make the yen an ideal funding currency. If the new Prime Minister leans dovish, the dollar-yen rate may challenge 150.00; however, any signals of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan on October 30 could strengthen the yen [2] - Euro to Pound: Q4 range of 0.8600-0.8900. The pound performs well in rising risk appetite, but the UK's fiscal challenges and potential wage service price slowdowns may trigger aggressive rate cut expectations from the Bank of England in 2026, with the November 26 budget becoming a key risk event [2] - Euro to Swiss Franc: Q4 range of 0.9200-0.9450. Despite a softened market expectation for the Swiss franc's strength, demand for "hard assets," limited easing space from the Swiss National Bank, and domestic dollar risk hedging needs will support the franc's relative strength against the euro and dollar [2] Actionable Strategies - UBS recommends three strategies: buying euros against the dollar during declines to prepare for potential rebounds; closely monitoring U.S. employment data, Fed chair nominations, and the UK budget to adjust trading strategies; and focusing on the Bank of Japan's October meeting for any rate hike signals to assess dollar-yen exchange rate trends [3]