Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-25 09:08Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that FCX has temporarily suspended production at the Grasberg mine due to a mining accident on September 8, 2023, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in copper output forecasts for the next two years compared to market expectations [1] Group 1: Incident Impact - Approximately 800,000 tons of wet material suddenly flooded the mine, affecting multiple operational levels, with the Grasberg block cave (GBC) area originally expected to contribute 70% of the mine's copper and gold output before 2029 [1] - The incident at Grasberg, combined with accidents at Kamoa Kakula and El Teniente mines, as well as protests in Peru, will exacerbate short-term supply risks in the mining sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - UBS has revised its global mining supply growth forecast for 2026 down to approximately 2% (500,000 tons), accounting for about 5% supply disruptions due to the Grasberg incident [1] - The past 2-3 years have seen refined copper supply growth outpace mining supply growth, tightening the copper concentrate and scrap market, which has delayed the tightening of the refined market and suppressed copper prices from breaking the $10,000 per ton mark [1] - The 2025 global refined copper production forecast is set at 27.853 million tons, with total demand at 27.586 million tons, indicating a supply-demand balance deficit of 267,000 tons for this year; however, the 2026 refined copper production is forecasted at 28.062 million tons, with demand at 28.482 million tons, suggesting a supply-demand imbalance for the following year [1]