Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-25 09:59Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that while the interest business of commercial banks in China will continue to face pressure throughout the year, the downward trend is expected to slow down [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Margin Trends - In Q2 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks in China is projected to be 1.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.12 percentage points, marking a new historical low [1]. - Compared to the data from 2024, the decline in net interest margin shows signs of narrowing [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Interest Business - The banking industry is promoting loan pricing and business risk alignment under the recent "anti-involution" trend, ensuring that loan rates remain at reasonable levels [1]. - The performance of the capital market in 2025 is expected to gradually influence residents' risk preferences and savings willingness, alongside listed banks timely reducing deposit rates, which may alleviate the trend towards short-term deposits [1]. - The acceleration of digital transformation will enable listed banks to effectively utilize AI and large models to enhance the precision control of interest business expenditures [1]. Group 3: Credit Scale and Asset Growth - The credit scale of commercial banks is expected to grow moderately throughout the year, with a focus on structural optimization, particularly in supporting consumer spending and new productivity development, which are anticipated to achieve higher growth rates [2]. - The asset and liability scale growth rate of commercial banks is projected to remain at a high level of approximately 8.5% in 2025 [2].