新消费派｜柠檬减产价格上涨 年销超10亿杯柠檬水的蜜雪冰城利润承压

Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemons affecting multiple locations of Mixue Ice City is attributed to delays in imported lemons due to weather conditions and the initial harvesting phase of local lemons in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, leading to temporary supply tightness [2][10]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing - Mixue Ice City has begun large-scale purchases of lemons from Anyue County, which is expected to alleviate future supply pressures, although the procurement prices for lemons have increased compared to previous years [2][6]. - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has risen to 14.91 yuan per kilogram in September 2025, nearly double the price of 7.87 yuan per kilogram from the previous year [9]. - The lemon production in Anyue County, a major supplier for Mixue Ice City, is projected to decline by approximately 20% due to adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and late spring frost [8][9]. Group 2: Impact on Mixue Ice City - Mixue Ice City sold approximately 11 billion cups of its signature lemon water from January to September 2024, generating over 4 billion yuan in sales from this single product [10]. - The rising lemon prices pose a risk to Mixue Ice City's profit margins, as the company has historically focused on cost control and competitive pricing [11]. - If the current lemon prices are maintained and costs cannot be passed on to consumers, Mixue Ice City may face potential losses, challenging its high-value positioning in the market [11].