煤价还要涨！多重逻辑共振下的“黑金”行情

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal market has entered a strong rebound since August 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints, demand recovery, and supportive policies, indicating a clear upward price trajectory for coal in the future [1][4]. Supply Side - Continuous tightening of supply has laid the foundation for rising coal prices, with significant declines in domestic production. In August 2025, the output of industrial raw coal was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with a daily average production of 12.6 million tons [1]. - Strict safety and environmental inspections in major production areas, such as Shanxi and Shaanxi, have led to reduced production and shutdowns of some coal mines, exacerbating supply tightness [1]. Import Market - The import market has also contracted, with August 2025 data showing that China imported 32.575 million tons of thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31% but a month-on-month increase of 25.35%. Cumulatively, imports from January to August 2025 were 227.492 million tons, down 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in international coal prices, domestic import willingness remains low, influenced by global market dynamics, including Colombia's coal export ban to Israel, which has raised transportation costs and indirectly pushed international coal prices up [2]. Demand Side - Multiple favorable factors are driving demand, with increased coal consumption due to insufficient hydropower output during summer. In August, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants reached 2.2 million tons, highlighting coal's role as a "safety net" energy source [2]. - The demand from non-electric sectors, such as steel and cement, is rapidly recovering, with the significant rise in coke prices reflecting strong demand from the steel industry [2][3]. Policy Support - The subtle shift in coal policy in 2025 has become a crucial support for prices, moving from "supply guarantee and price suppression" to "price stabilization and support." The defined "green range" for thermal coal prices is set between 570-770 yuan/ton, with no enforced price suppression [3]. - State-owned enterprises are implementing dynamic pricing mechanisms, with local state-owned enterprises anchoring prices at a 770 yuan ceiling, encouraging spot prices to align with long-term contract prices [3]. Price Outlook - The current coal market exhibits significant structural price increases, with spot prices for thermal coal surpassing state enterprise contract prices, and there is potential for prices to approach the 770 yuan/ton level set by local state enterprises [4]. - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to continue due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand effects, and increased infrastructure investment, with policies providing a safety net for prices [4][5].