刘纪鹏：A股慢牛面临最大考验，大股东全面减持潜在规模达15万亿

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, but it remains in a value trap due to underlying economic challenges [1][2]. Economic Fundamentals - The current Chinese economy is in a downward cycle, with significant fiscal pressure on local governments and a severe employment situation, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide effective support [1]. - The total social financing in China is heavily reliant on bank loans, which amount to approximately 36 trillion yuan, indicating a low proportion of direct financing from the capital market [1]. Market Liquidity - The coordination efficiency between the central bank and the securities regulatory commission has significantly improved, with the central financial committee playing a key role in injecting ample liquidity into the market [2]. - Despite a rebound of about 800 points from the market's low, systemic optimization of the institutional framework is necessary to avoid resistance to further market growth [2]. Institutional Reforms - The issue of major shareholder reductions is identified as a core bottleneck affecting market confidence and long-term healthy development [2]. - There are over 5,400 listed companies in the A-share market with a total share capital of approximately 77 trillion shares, of which over 90% are tradable [2]. Shareholder Behavior - Current major shareholders are criticized for focusing on reducing their holdings rather than improving company operations, which undermines the original intent of the capital market to serve the real economy [3]. - A warning is issued regarding the potential market crash if major shareholders are allowed to reduce their holdings indiscriminately, with an estimated funding requirement of about 15 trillion yuan for comprehensive reductions [3].