这次有何不同？美国政府又陷停摆危局 市场真能再次“淡定”吗？

Group 1 - The risk of a partial government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing as Democrats and Republicans are at an impasse over funding proposals, which could impact financial regulatory operations and delay key economic data releases [1] - Historically, markets have been indifferent to government shutdowns, but this time may be different due to potential delays in critical economic data like monthly employment and inflation reports, leading to "blind decision-making" by the Federal Reserve [2] - A prolonged shutdown could solidify market expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors struggle to assess the extent of economic slowdown [2] Group 2 - Financial regulatory agencies like the SEC may significantly reduce staff and operations during a shutdown, retaining only core teams, which would impair their ability to conduct essential functions such as corporate filing reviews and market oversight [3][4] - The CFTC plans to place most of its employees on unpaid leave during a shutdown, halting most market regulatory activities, while banking and consumer protection agencies will continue to operate normally as their funding is not dependent on Congress [4][5] - The IPO process will be adversely affected, as companies will be unable to proceed with listings without SEC approval, potentially stalling the momentum in the equity capital markets [6]