“赢回全部乌克兰！” 特朗普撂狠话，信息量很大 | 国际识局

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's recent statement indicates a significant shift in his stance towards Ukraine, suggesting that Ukraine has the potential to regain its territory with the support of the EU and NATO, contrasting with his previous approach of urging negotiations and concessions from Ukraine [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Considerations - Trump's change in perspective is not based on Ukraine's military capabilities but rather as a tactic to exert pressure on Russia [4]. - The current U.S. policy towards Russia prioritizes maintaining strategic stability and preventing the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, with a focus on short-term economic benefits for the U.S. [4][7]. - The shift may signal a change in the U.S. approach to negotiations, moving from active mediation to a more passive stance, potentially abandoning dialogue if Russia does not compromise [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on European Relations - Trump's strong rhetoric aims to alleviate European concerns regarding security threats from Russia, especially following recent incidents in Poland, Estonia, and Romania [5][6]. - The initial lukewarm response from Trump to these incidents raised doubts among NATO's European members about the reliability of U.S. commitments to collective security [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The ongoing conflict may provide short-term economic benefits to the U.S. through sustained pressure on Russia, aligning with Trump's shift from seeking a Nobel Peace Prize to focusing on energy and military gains [7]. - There is potential for the U.S. to expand military sales to Ukraine, supported by European funding, which could become a long-term strategy [8]. Group 4: Potential for Conflict Escalation - Trump's assertion that Ukraine could reclaim its territory may provoke a renewed wave of Western support for Ukraine, raising concerns about escalating tensions with Russia [9]. - Despite the potential for increased conflict, the likelihood of direct military engagement between NATO and Russia remains low due to Trump's cautious diplomatic approach [9]. Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The sustainability of Trump's new policy remains uncertain, as it may be more tactical than strategic, with the possibility of further adjustments based on geopolitical developments [10]. - Trump's approach reflects a desire to maximize options in negotiations, indicating that he may continue to shift his stance as circumstances evolve [10].