德国权威机构预测2025年德经济小幅增长0.2%

Core Viewpoint - The joint economic forecast report from five major German economic research institutions predicts that Germany's economy will only grow by 0.2% in 2025, primarily due to the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies and other factors [1]. Economic Growth Outlook - The report indicates that while Germany's economy is gradually emerging from a downturn, the service sector is experiencing strong growth, whereas the manufacturing sector is struggling to recover [1]. - The growth outlook is constrained by high energy and labor costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and declining competitiveness due to a lack of structural reforms [1]. Export and Domestic Policy - The report highlights that U.S. tariffs have severely impacted the global economy, leading to weakened overseas demand for German goods, which hampers the potential for exports to drive economic recovery [1]. - In the next two years, Germany's economic growth is expected to rely mainly on domestic expansionary fiscal policies [1]. Future Projections - Economic growth in Germany is projected to be 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery despite existing structural weaknesses [1]. Risks and Trade Disputes - The report warns of significant downside risks to the German economy, primarily stemming from trade disputes between the U.S. and the EU, which could impose heavy burdens on both economies if tensions escalate [1]. Importance of the Report - The joint economic forecast report is published biannually and serves as an important reference for the German federal government in formulating economic policies [1].