中原地产：香港一手住宅成交强劲 料年底货尾量跌至1.8万个单位

Core Insights - The Hong Kong property market is gradually recovering due to a decrease in interest rates, leading developers to actively sell remaining inventory and accelerate stock clearance [1][2] - The number of unsold primary residential units in Hong Kong has decreased to approximately 19,690 units as of September 24, down 185 units from the previous month, marking a nearly 1% decline and remaining below 20,000 units for the third consecutive month [1] - The total unsold inventory has decreased by over 3,100 units, or 14%, compared to the peak of 22,816 units at the beginning of the year [1] Inventory Changes - Significant changes in unsold primary units have been observed across various districts, with the most notable decline in New Territories West, where inventory dropped from 4,147 units to 2,902 units, a decrease of approximately 30% [1] - Kowloon also experienced a decline, with unsold units falling from 12,763 to 10,556, representing a 17% drop [1] - The only district to record an increase in unsold units was New Territories East, which rose from 2,230 to 2,858 units, an increase of 28.2% [1] Market Performance - The confidence of buyers has significantly improved, leading to a strong performance in the primary market, with over 15,000 transactions recorded in the first nine months of the year, a 63% increase compared to the total of 9,200 transactions in 2022 and a 39% increase from 10,790 transactions in 2023 [2] - The cumulative transaction volume has reached 95% of last year's total of 15,839 transactions, with expectations to exceed 20,000 transactions by the end of the year, potentially setting a new record since the implementation of the new residential sales regulations in 2013 [2] Developer Strategies - Developers are expected to accelerate sales by adopting pricing strategies closer to market rates to attract buyers, especially as the interest rate reduction cycle unfolds [2] - It is anticipated that the unsold inventory will decrease to around 18,000 units by the end of the year, with some projects launched during the market peak recently transitioning to completed units and reducing prices by 20% to 30% to stimulate sales [2] - In September, the primary market recorded over 1,500 transactions, with more than 60% being completed units, involving nearly 1,000 units [2]