【环球财经】瑞士央行维持利率不变 仍有可能采取负利率政策

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0%, indicating readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. This decision aligns with market expectations, but there are concerns about the impact of high U.S. tariffs on Swiss economic growth, which may lead to potential rate cuts in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The SNB's current monetary policy is described as expansionary, with a higher threshold for entering negative interest rates compared to normal rate cuts. The bank is prepared to use all available tools if needed [1][3]. - The chief economist at Syz Bank believes that the current robust monetary policy is reasonable given the economic and political landscape, with the main concern being uncertainty surrounding the export sector [1]. - UBS economists highlight that tariffs pose the greatest downside risk to Swiss economic growth in the short term, and even a reduction in rates to negative territory may not effectively counteract the impact of tariffs [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - Swiss GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.5% by the second quarter of 2025, with high U.S. tariffs likely to suppress exports and investments, particularly in the machinery and watchmaking sectors. However, the service sector remains resilient [2]. - The SNB forecasts moderate economic growth, with GDP growth expectations of 1% to 1.5% for 2025, slowing to nearly 1% in 2026, and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate [2]. - Current inflation pressures are mild, with the Swiss inflation rate rising to 0.2% in August, driven mainly by the tourism sector and imported goods. The SNB projects inflation rates of 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027 if the policy rate remains at 0% [2].