【环球财经】记者观察：德国加码发展军工 打造经济复苏引擎

Core Viewpoint - Germany, as the economic "locomotive" of Europe, has been in recession for two consecutive years, prompting the government to significantly increase investment in the defense industry to stimulate the weak economy [1][3]. Economic Context - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports, has faced multiple challenges including energy price shocks and slow industrial transformation, leading to a clear downward trend [3]. - The Federal Statistical Office reported a 2.9% month-on-month decline in new industrial orders in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3]. - Major automotive manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen have reported significant profit declines for the first half of 2025 due to slow electrification and external pressures such as high tariffs from the U.S. [3]. - The German government has approved a total budget of €520.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026, with a defense budget of €82.7 billion, a 32% increase from the previous fiscal year [3]. Defense Industry Investment - The German defense ministry plans to submit over 60 orders by the end of 2025, including a new generation "European fighter jet" project with a budget of €3 to €5 billion and the "Puma" infantry fighting vehicle project costing around €10 billion [5]. - The defense industry is seen as a crucial component of Germany's economic resilience and is expected to play a significant role in economic recovery [5]. Industry Challenges - The German defense industry has been in a state of contraction since the end of the Cold War, with military spending as a percentage of GDP dropping from 2.5% in 1990 to 1.4% in 2020, leading to reduced production capacity and a loss of technical personnel [5]. - Germany remains competitive in traditional sectors like tank and submarine manufacturing but lags in emerging fields such as stealth fighters and drones due to lower R&D investment compared to other military powers [5]. Market Dynamics - Germany's military spending has increased for three consecutive years, making it the fourth-largest military spender globally in 2024 [8]. - Rheinmetall, a major defense manufacturer, has seen its stock price rise nearly 2000% over the past five years, with 80% of its revenue now coming from defense [8]. - Demand for products from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, including submarines and frigates, has surged, with projected sales of approximately €2.1 billion for the 2023-2024 fiscal year, a 16.7% increase from the previous year [9]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German Employment Research Institute predicts that the upward trend in the defense industry will continue for years, potentially creating up to 200,000 jobs [13]. - However, some economists express caution regarding the potential of defense spending to significantly boost the economy, citing the need for government borrowing rather than tax increases to fund military expansion [15]. - The economic multiplier effect of military spending is relatively low, with estimates suggesting that every €1 spent on defense only generates about €0.50 in economic activity, compared to higher multipliers for infrastructure and education investments [16].