PayPal's Buy Now Pay Later Grows Fast: What Drives This Surge?

Core Insights - PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) feature is a significant growth driver, with BNPL volume increasing over 20% year over year in Q2 2025 and monthly active accounts growing by 18% [1][8] Group 1: BNPL Growth and Partnerships - PayPal has entered a two-year agreement with Blue Owl Capital to sell approximately $7 billion of its U.S. "Pay in 4" BNPL receivables, while continuing to manage customer interactions [2] - The BNPL solution has proven beneficial for merchants, exemplified by Ace Hardware, which saw a 35% increase in PayPal sales and a sevenfold rise in average order values after adopting the BNPL service [3] - PayPal's BNPL is widely available, operating in nine global markets, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Competitive Landscape - Consumers using BNPL have an average order value over 80% higher than standard branded checkouts, enhancing merchant sales and creating additional revenue opportunities [4] - In comparison, Block's BNPL Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) grew 17% year over year to $9.11 billion in Q2 2025, while Affirm reported a 45.6% increase in total transactions to 31.3 million in Q3 2025 [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - PayPal shares have declined 20.5% year to date, underperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [7] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 12.02X, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.13X, indicating a potential undervaluation [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PayPal's full-year 2025 EPS has been revised upward, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 12.5% [10]