When will mortgage rates go down? Rates bounce back up after the Fed meeting.

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have increased after a period of stability, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.30%, higher than the previous year’s rate of 6.08% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has not led to a decrease in mortgage rates, which is contrary to expectations [3][4] - The current housing market is characterized by high demand and limited supply, keeping home prices elevated [11][12] Mortgage Rate Trends - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 6.49%, which is 33 basis points higher than the same time last year [2] - Mortgage rates typically follow trends in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is currently at 4.12%, up from 3.75% a year ago [9][10] - The spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield is currently 2.18% [10] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, marking its first cut of the year [4][5] - Historically, mortgage rates do not always decrease following a fed funds rate cut, as seen in previous years [6][7] Housing Market Dynamics - The median sale price of single-family homes has increased from $208,400 in Q1 2009 to $410,800 by Q2 2025 [12] - The imbalance between buyers and available homes is contributing to sustained high home prices [11] Future Outlook - Predictions for mortgage rates vary, with the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting a 30-year fixed rate of 6.5% by the end of 2025, while Fannie Mae is more optimistic, predicting a drop to 5.9% [21]