科技成长仍是主线券商看好A股四季度延续上行趋势

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently in a high-level fluctuation state, with expectations for a potential recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by structural earnings recovery, policy support, and improved macro and micro liquidity [1][2][3] Market Performance - A-share market has shown significant differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining a high-level fluctuation while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices continue to rise [1] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with many brokerages expecting the market to challenge new platforms and further advance, albeit with increased volatility [1][2] Macroeconomic Factors - Export growth is expected to remain resilient, and manufacturing investment may continue to improve structurally, contributing to a potential recovery in consumption during the fourth quarter [2] - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are anticipated to boost the RMB exchange rate, attracting global capital inflows into China [2] Liquidity Environment - Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation of household assets into equity markets and a potential uptick in fund issuance as net asset values recover [3] - The current proportion of stocks and funds in Chinese household assets is still lower than in developed markets, indicating room for growth [3] Market Style and Trends - The market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the fourth quarter, with both growth and value styles having opportunities [3][4] - Historical data suggests that value style has a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth style in the fourth quarter [3] Sector Focus - The technology growth line, particularly in AI, is highlighted as a key investment focus, alongside cyclical sectors showing signs of improvement [4][5] - Specific sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and engineering machinery are identified as having potential opportunities due to improving economic conditions [6] Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor and AI-related sectors are expected to see continued growth, with specific attention to PCB and liquid cooling technologies [5] - The chemical sector is also viewed positively, with capital expenditure at historically low levels and improving profit growth trends [6] - Other sectors of interest include military, financial IT, and renewable energy, as well as consumer sectors like pet economy and beauty products [6]