经合组织发布中期经济展望报告显示——上半年全球经济韧性超预期

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.2%, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 2.9% [1] - Emerging market economies have shown remarkable resilience, becoming a significant driver of global growth amidst economic fluctuations [1] - The investment boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating digital transformation, with companies increasing investments in AI technologies and automation systems [1] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Key risks identified include rising tariff rates and renewed inflation pressures, with the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reaching 19.5%, the highest since 1933 [2] - The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with the OECD's chief economist noting that labor market performance is not as strong as before [2] - The OECD projects U.S. economic growth to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and further to 1.5% in 2026, indicating a pessimistic outlook for global economic growth [3] Group 3: Structural Reforms and International Cooperation - Continuous global economic recovery requires countries to deepen structural reforms and unleash the growth potential of new technologies like AI [4] - The OECD emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and the need for transparent and predictable trade policies to balance security and openness [3][4] - China's practices in developing new productive forces and its AI governance initiative have gained international recognition, contributing to a global consensus on AI collaboration [4]