【环时深度】五年四换相，日本正进入“多党化时代”

Core Points - The upcoming election for the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is crucial, with five candidates competing amid a challenging political landscape marked by a "double minority" situation in both houses of parliament [1][8] - Public sentiment is mixed regarding frequent leadership changes, with some expressing anxiety over political instability while others hope for new leadership to bring about change [4][12] - The election process involves a unique voting structure where party members and supporters have a significant influence, potentially leading to unexpected outcomes [4][5] Candidate Analysis - Polls indicate that Sanae Takaichi leads with 28% support, followed closely by Shinjiro Koizumi at 24%, while the other candidates lag significantly [2][4] - Takaichi may need to moderate her right-wing positions to appeal to a broader base, while Koizumi must demonstrate policy stability despite his lack of experience in key party roles [5][6] - The influence of former Prime Ministers Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga, and Fumio Kishida is critical, as their support could sway the election outcome significantly [6][7] Political Landscape - Japan is entering a "multi-party era," complicating the ability of the new LDP president to govern effectively without cooperation from opposition parties [8][10] - Historical context shows that Japan has experienced significant political shifts, with the LDP's dominance challenged by various parties over the decades [9][10] - The new president will face immediate challenges, including rising prices, stagnant wages, and the need to increase defense spending, alongside long-term issues like aging demographics and social welfare sustainability [12][13]