Core Viewpoint - The current urea market in China is characterized by an oversupply and high inventory levels, with no significant positive factors on the demand side. Although exports have seen some recovery, they are limited in both time and volume, leading to a continued weak price outlook for urea in the short term [1][11]. Supply Situation - Urea prices in China have been on a downward trend in the second half of the year, with production profits being squeezed. As of now, the average loss for fixed-bed process urea production is 220 CNY/ton, while gas-based process urea production incurs a loss of 185 CNY/ton. The more advanced gasification process yields a profit of 155 CNY/ton, indicating low overall industry profit levels [2]. - The operating rate of urea production enterprises in China is at 81.22% as of September 17, down 3.98 percentage points year-on-year and 8.61 percentage points from the high in late May. Despite this decrease, the supply pressure remains significant, with a weekly production of 1.3 to 1.35 million tons, which is notably higher than demand [2]. - As of September 18, total inventory for urea enterprises is 1.1653 million tons, with port sample inventory at 516,000 tons. Although port inventory has decreased due to export recovery, both enterprise and port inventories are significantly above levels from the same period last year, necessitating low prices to promote inventory reduction [2]. Demand Factors - Currently, there is a seasonal recovery in agricultural demand as the period for winter fertilizer reserves approaches. The order situation for compound fertilizers is decent, leading to an increase in operating rates and subsequently boosting urea demand. However, overall demand remains below expectations, with weekly demand around 1.15 million tons, failing to keep pace with supply [3][11]. Export Dynamics - China has transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of urea since 2000, with significant export volumes in 2014 and 2015. However, in 2024, to ensure urea demand and stabilize prices, exports have been suspended, with only 25,000 tons expected to be exported, a decrease of 3.9947 million tons or 94.11% from 2023 [10]. - The export policy has been gradually relaxed, allowing for a limited export window from May to September, with a total cap of 2 million tons. As of July and August, exports reached 1.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 740,000 tons or 117.46%. However, the impact on the overall supply-demand balance remains limited due to the capped export volume [10][11].
供应居高不下 尿素弱势运行
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang·2025-09-25 23:46