库存居高不下，尿素价格维持低位运行

Core Viewpoint - The current urea market in China is characterized by an oversupply and high inventory levels, with no significant positive factors on the demand side. Although exports have seen some recovery, they are limited in both time and volume, making it difficult for the supply-demand imbalance to change in the short term, leading to continued weak price performance [1]. Group 1: Supply Situation - The overall trend of urea prices has been a downward fluctuation in the second half of the year, with production profits being squeezed due to falling prices. As of now, the average loss for fixed-bed process urea production is 220 CNY/ton, while gas-based process urea production incurs a loss of 185 CNY/ton. The more advanced gasification process yields a profit of 155 CNY/ton, indicating low overall profit levels in the industry [2]. - Despite a decrease in production enthusiasm due to falling profits, the supply pressure remains significant, with a weekly production of 1.3 to 1.35 million tons, which is notably higher than demand, resulting in rising inventory levels. As of September 18, total inventory for urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, with port sample inventory at 516,000 tons, both significantly above the levels of the same period last year [2]. - Looking ahead, the resumption of previously shut-down facilities by the end of September is expected to increase urea supply. However, in the fourth quarter, production losses and gas supply restrictions are anticipated to reduce the operating load of gas-based urea production, which may help alleviate the current oversupply issue [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Currently, there is a seasonal recovery in agricultural demand as the market prepares for winter fertilizer reserves. The order situation for compound fertilizers is relatively good, leading to an increase in operating loads and subsequently a slight increase in urea demand. However, overall demand remains below expectations, with weekly demand around 1.15 million tons, failing to keep pace with supply [3]. - Since 2000, China has transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter of urea, with significant export volumes in 2014 and 2015. However, the long-term tight balance between supply and demand has led to considerable price volatility, increasing production costs for agriculture [5]. Group 3: Export Policies - In 2024, to ensure urea demand and stabilize prices, China has suspended urea exports, with only 25,000 tons expected to be exported, a decrease of 399,470 tons or 94.11% compared to 2023. The first half of this year saw only 7,000 tons exported [6]. - The gradual relaxation of export policies has allowed for some recovery in urea exports, with a total of 1.37 million tons exported from July to August, an increase of 740,000 tons or 117.46% year-on-year. However, with a total export cap of 200,000 tons, the impact on the overall supply-demand balance remains limited [6]. - Despite some recovery in exports and seasonal demand, the fundamental issue of oversupply persists, with limited impact from exports due to quota and time restrictions. The overall supply-demand imbalance is expected to remain unchanged, leading to continued low prices in the short term [7].