流动性警报拉响！美国银行业准备金连续七周暴跌，失守3万亿美元关口

Group 1 - The U.S. banking system's reserves have decreased significantly for the seventh consecutive week, falling below $3 trillion, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's decision on reducing its balance sheet [1][3] - As of the week ending September 24, bank reserves dropped by approximately $21 billion to $2.9997 trillion, marking the lowest level since the week of January 1 [1][3] - The decline in reserves coincides with the U.S. Treasury increasing bond issuance to rebuild cash balances after raising the debt ceiling in July, which has drained liquidity from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [3] Group 2 - The reduction in reserves is exacerbated by the near depletion of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP), leading to a continuous decline in bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve [3] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening, QT) is affecting daily operations in the financial system, with potential liquidity constraints that could lead to market volatility [3] - The effective federal funds rate has slightly increased to 4.09%, indicating a tightening financial environment, which is a significant change after two years of hovering near the lower end of the target range [3][4] Group 3 - Senior economist Lou Crandall noted that the reduction in excess funds available for non-U.S. institutions has led to a contraction in the trading volume behind the federal funds rate [4] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested that the Federal Reserve should abandon the federal funds rate as a benchmark for monetary policy and consider using overnight rates linked to a more robust U.S. Treasury collateralized loan market [4] - Logan emphasized that the federal funds rate target has become outdated, and the connection between the rarely used interbank market and the overnight money market is weak and could suddenly break [4]