Core Viewpoint - Germany's economy, facing a recession for two consecutive years, is heavily investing in the defense industry as a means to stimulate economic recovery, although experts caution that defense spending may not be the primary driver of economic revival [1][3][10]. Economic Context - Germany's economy has been struggling due to rising energy prices and slow industrial transformation, with a notable decline in industrial new orders, which fell by 2.9% in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3][4]. - The automotive sector, a key industry, is experiencing a sluggish transition to electric vehicles, leading to a drop in sales and profits among major car manufacturers [3][4]. - The German government has approved a significant budget for defense, with a total budget of €520.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026, including a defense budget of €82.7 billion, a 32% increase from the previous year [3][4]. Defense Industry Investment - The German defense ministry plans to submit over 60 orders by the end of 2025, including projects for a new generation of European fighter jets and infantry fighting vehicles, with budgets ranging from €3 billion to €10 billion [4][6]. - Germany's defense spending has been increasing for three consecutive years, positioning it as the fourth-largest military spender globally by 2024 [6][8]. Industry Dynamics - Major defense companies like Rheinmetall have seen significant stock price increases, with a nearly 2000% rise over the past five years, and are shifting focus from automotive to defense, with plans to completely divest from automotive parts by 2025 [6][7]. - Companies are expanding into new areas, such as Rheinmetall acquiring a naval shipbuilding company and other firms like Hensoldt experiencing a surge in orders for military sensors and radars [7][8]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German Employment Research Institute predicts that the defense industry could create up to 200,000 jobs in the coming years, although there are concerns about the limited economic stimulus potential of military spending [8][10]. - Economic experts argue that the fiscal multiplier effect of military spending is low, suggesting that investments in infrastructure and education typically yield higher returns [10][11]. Challenges and Limitations - The military-industrial complex in Germany faces challenges such as long project cycles and a highly automated production process, which limits job creation [11]. - There is a historical caution against militarization in German society, which may slow the pace of defense industry growth despite recent increases in spending [4][5].
列国鉴｜记者观察：德国加码发展军工 打造经济复苏引擎
Xin Hua Wang·2025-09-26 00:54