三季度债市为何调整？

Group 1 - The main reason for the adjustment in the bond market in Q3 is the shift in market risk appetite due to the rise in equity markets, leading to a reallocation of funds from bonds to equities. However, the trend of residents moving their savings from fixed income to equities is not very pronounced, as many still prefer stable and relatively attractive return assets, resulting in continued interest in bond assets after the Q3 adjustment [1] - The implementation of the anti-involution policy in July has led to a rebound in various commodities in Q3, including black commodities and upstream assets in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a tightening of supply-side constraints. Some leading companies in the photovoltaic sector are investing in new companies to store capacity and eliminate outdated production [1][2] - The anti-involution policy is primarily focused on supply-side control of production capacity, which is expected to gradually stabilize prices. However, the transmission of this policy to price levels may not be evident until Q1 of next year, with the market's inflation expectations peaking around August and September [2] Group 2 - The current factors causing significant adjustments in the bond market have begun to correct, leading to a substantial rise in the bond market. Many short and long-term bonds have become attractive for allocation, as previously negative factors are dissipating [3] - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as having allocation value, being the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange Ten-Year Government Bond Index, with advantages such as transparent holdings and T+0 trading [3]