国债期货：MLF增量续作 期债整体走势震荡

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.11% to 114.110 yuan, hitting a new low since November 28, 2024, at 113.35 yuan during intraday trading [1] - The 10-year main contract fell by 0.01%, reaching a new low of 107.345 yuan since March 19, with an intraday decline of 0.26% [1] - The 5-year and 2-year main contracts both decreased by 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 10-year government development bond "25国开15" yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.9570% [1] - The 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield decreased by 0.8 basis points to 1.8070%, with an intraday high of 1.8360% [1] - The 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield remained unchanged at 2.1140%, with an intraday high of 2.1425% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 25, with a total bid amount of 483.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 487 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan [2] - The central bank also planned to conduct a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on September 25, with a one-year term [2] - With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing in September, the net MLF injection for the month will reach 300 billion yuan, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - Overall, the MLF and reverse repurchase operations in September released a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining the same net injection scale as August [2] - Despite the central bank's actions, interbank market liquidity remains limited, with overnight repurchase rates rising nearly 4 basis points to around 1.47% [2] Operational Recommendations - The central bank's excess MLF operations have not significantly eased funding conditions, leading to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [3] - The bond market outlook remains mixed, influenced by market risk appetite, policies to expand domestic demand, and quarter-end institutional behaviors [3] - The central bank's potential resumption of government bond trading remains uncertain, and quarter-end funding fluctuations are expected to increase [3] - Without additional negative factors, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to operate within a high range of 1.8-1.83%, but short-term rate declines may be limited around 1.75% [3] - The T2512 contract is anticipated to fluctuate between 107.4 and 108.35, with 107.4 providing some support [3] - Investors are advised to focus on range trading strategies and maintain a quick entry and exit approach, while also considering participation in TL contract basis narrowing strategies [3]