通胀粘性VS就业疲软，全球央行在紧缩与宽松间艰难求衡

Core Viewpoint - Global central banks are entering a new phase of policy adjustment characterized by unprecedented divergence, with Japan initiating asset reduction, the Federal Reserve starting preventive rate cuts, while the European and UK central banks remain cautious amid persistent inflation pressures [1][18]. Central Bank Policy Summary Japan - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.50% while initiating a reduction plan for its large ETF and J-REITs holdings, starting with an annual reduction of approximately 620 billion yen (about 4.2 billion USD) [2][6]. - The decision reflects a significant step towards normalizing the ultra-loose monetary policy that has been in place for over a decade, despite the slow pace of asset reduction indicating a cautious approach [6][7]. United States - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, citing economic slowdown and labor market cooling as key factors [3][4]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision was a risk management measure, balancing the dual risks of a weakening labor market and persistent high inflation [3][4]. Europe - The European Central Bank (ECB) kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2%, indicating that current inflation is close to the medium-term target of 2% and that the eurozone economy shows resilience [9][10]. - There are internal divisions within the ECB regarding future actions, with some members advocating for rate cuts due to long-term deflation risks, while others believe current rates are sufficient to address multiple challenges [10][11]. United Kingdom - The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its rate at 4%, highlighting significant medium-term inflation pressures despite a slight GDP growth [11][12]. - The BoE plans to slow its quantitative tightening from £100 billion to £70 billion annually, reflecting concerns over long-term bond market pressures [12][13]. Canada and Australia - The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, responding to economic shrinkage and employment declines due to U.S. tariffs [14][15]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has also reduced its cash rate to 3.60%, indicating a cautious shift towards easing while monitoring economic data closely [16][17]. Global Monetary Policy Landscape - The global monetary policy environment is marked by high uncertainty, with central banks facing complex challenges such as intricate inflation structures, external risks from trade policies, and political instability [18]. - The divergence in policy approaches among major central banks reflects a transition from a highly coordinated response during the pandemic to a more nuanced, differentiated strategy in response to evolving economic conditions [18].