【财经分析】通胀粘性VS就业疲软 全球央行在紧缩与宽松间艰难求衡

Core Viewpoint - Global central banks are entering a new phase of policy adjustment characterized by unprecedented divergence, with Japan initiating asset reduction, the Federal Reserve implementing preventive rate cuts, while the European and UK central banks remain cautious amid persistent inflation pressures [1][18]. Central Bank Policy Summary Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25% as a risk management measure, citing a slowdown in economic growth and a cooling labor market [3][4]. - The decision was influenced by a combination of high inflation and weakening employment, with the core PCE index rising to 2.9% in August [3][4]. - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis without preset paths [5]. Bank of Japan (BOJ) - The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.5% but announced an annual reduction plan for its substantial ETF and J-REITs holdings, starting with approximately 620 billion yen (about 4.2 billion USD) [6][7]. - This marks a significant step towards normalizing the ultra-loose monetary policy that has been in place for over a decade [6]. - The BOJ's core CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a slight decline from July [7]. European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) - The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2%, citing strong economic resilience in the Eurozone and inflation nearing the 2% target [9][10]. - The BoE also maintained its rate at 4%, highlighting significant medium-term inflation pressures despite a slight GDP growth [11][12]. - Both central banks are cautious about further easing due to persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties [10][11]. Other Central Banks - The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% to address the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, with a focus on balancing economic and inflation risks [14][15]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its cash rate to 3.6%, indicating a cautious approach to further easing based on economic data and external risks [16][17]. Global Monetary Policy Landscape - The global monetary policy environment is shifting towards a phase of high uncertainty, with central banks facing complex challenges including inflation dynamics, external risks from trade policies, and political instability [18]. - The divergence in policy approaches among major central banks reflects a transition from coordinated actions to a more nuanced, differentiated strategy in response to varying economic conditions [18].