【财经分析】9月奶价释放回暖信号 去产能和“双节”效应能否托底？

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry has been in a downward cycle for over three years, with intensified competition and low consumer enthusiasm, raising questions about when this trend will end. However, there are signs of price stabilization and recovery in milk prices as of September, particularly in certain regions where raw milk prices have seen significant increases [1][2]. Price Trends - Since the second half of 2022, domestic fresh milk prices have been on a downward trend, with average prices dropping from a peak of 4.38 yuan per kilogram in August 2021 to nearly 3 yuan, representing a decline of over 30% [2]. - As of September 2025, the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces has stabilized at 3.03 yuan per kilogram, maintaining this level for three consecutive weeks, indicating a potential recovery [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the fresh milk market is gradually balancing due to factors such as reduced dairy cow production capacity and increased consumption of cold drinks. This has led to a stabilization in the purchase price of fresh milk [3][4]. - Some industry participants attribute the recent price stabilization to the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which has prompted dairy companies to stock up in advance [4]. Industry Adjustments - The dairy industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with a decrease in the number of dairy cows and a reduction in fresh milk production. As of 2024, the national dairy cow inventory was 6.3 million, down 4.5% year-on-year, and fresh milk production was 40.79 million tons, down 2.8% [4][5]. - The number of large-scale dairy farms has decreased from 4,600 in 2022 to 3,600 in 2024, indicating a deep adjustment period within the industry [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the overall cost of dairy farming remains above the price of fresh milk, putting pressure on dairy farming enterprises. This has led to larger farms slowing down capacity expansion while smaller farms accelerate their exit from the market [5][6]. - With the implementation of favorable policies such as childbirth subsidies and the promotion of student milk programs, there is an expectation of marginal recovery in dairy product demand, which may improve the supply-demand balance in the raw milk market [6].