阿根廷临时取消出口税 豆粕持续下行空间暂有限

Market Overview - On September 25, domestic oil mills saw a continued decline in soybean meal transactions, with a total volume of 103,000 tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 53,200 tons, while basis transaction volume was 26,000 tons, down 96,800 tons. The average transaction price was 2,956.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Export Data - According to the USDA, as of the week ending September 18, net sales of soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 80,000 tons, up from 31,000 tons the previous week. For the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 147,000 tons, slightly down from 151,000 tons the prior week [1]. Price Trends - On September 26, the spot prices for 43% soybean meal in East China showed a weak trend, with prices in various locations as follows: Taizhou Huifu at 2,890 yuan (down 10), Taixing Bangji at 2,900 yuan (down 10), Zhoushan Zhonghai at 2,900 yuan (down 10), Ningbo Jinguang at 2,920 yuan (down 10), and Wuhu Yihai at 2,940 yuan (unchanged) [1]. Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures indicated that soybean meal is in a consolidation phase, and short-term rebounds should be approached with caution. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tariff issues are expected to limit the downward space for soybean meal [1]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures reported that the Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives (soybean meal and oil), corn, and wheat to increase foreign exchange supply and curb the depreciation of its currency. The export tax on Argentine soybeans and soybean meal has been reduced from 26% and 24.5% to 0%. This move is expected to exert pressure on the global soybean market. However, the recent elimination of export taxes has attracted many buyers, and the $7 billion quota has been completed ahead of schedule, indicating that the tax exemption period has ended. The outlook for U.S. soybeans remains uncertain amid ongoing harvests and trade tariffs [1].