【环球财经】巴西央行预计2026年经济增速放缓至1.5%

Group 1 - The Brazilian Central Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 2% and introduced a new forecast of 1.5% for 2026, citing factors such as high interest rates, global economic slowdown, and unsustainable agricultural growth [1] - The report indicates that inflation in Brazil remains above target, with an expected inflation rate of 4.8% for 2025, exceeding the target range of 3% ± 1.5 percentage points [1] - To combat inflation, the Central Bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at a high of 15%, with expectations that rate cuts may not occur until 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian Finance Minister has criticized the 15% benchmark interest rate, suggesting there is room for rate cuts and emphasizing the need for annual GDP growth above 3% to support employment and income goals ahead of the 2026 elections [2] - The Central Bank Governor has attributed the persistent inflation to factors such as economic overheating, exchange rate volatility, rising electricity costs, and extreme weather impacts, asserting that high rates are essential for controlling inflation and protecting workers' purchasing power [2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 is set at 3.4%, the highest since 2021, while a potential slowdown to 1.5% in 2026 could mark the lowest growth since the economic contraction caused by the pandemic in 2020 [2]