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传统需求旺季已接近尾声 预计白糖延续区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-26 07:01

Market Review - On Thursday evening, white sugar futures fell by 0.05% to 5494 CNY/ton, while raw sugar rose by 0.99 the previous night [1] Fundamental Summary - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has urged the government to raise the minimum selling price (MSP) for sugar for the 2025-26 crushing season to at least 40.2 INR per kilogram, an increase of approximately 9 INR from the current level [2] - Stonex forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 2025-26 season starting in October, compared to a shortage of 4.67 million tons for the 2024-25 season [2] - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76 as of the week ending September 24, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Views - Dongwu Futures indicates that Brazil is experiencing a supply peak, with a significant increase in sugar production in the second half of August, which continues to pressure sugar prices. The expectation of increased domestic production for the new crushing season remains unchanged, and the import of sugar syrup and premixed powder continues to rise, leading to increasing supply pressure. The traditional demand peak is nearing its end, with general domestic spot transactions, and futures prices are supported by inventory, expected to continue in a range-bound fluctuation [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that due to record high domestic imports in August and a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in Brazil's central-south region, Zheng sugar has broken down, maintaining a bearish outlook on sugar prices. However, from a technical perspective, a significant increase in positions but a decrease in trading volume and narrowing price declines are unfavorable for further declines, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before the National Day holiday [3]