Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY26-27净利润预测，分别增加11%和15%至27.5亿和28.8亿元，维持跑赢行业评级，并将目标价上调17%至7港元 [1] Financial Performance - FY25 revenue reached 632.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit of 17.67 billion, aligning with prior forecasts [1] - In 2HFY25, net profit was 12.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 176%, driven by self-produced pulp benefits and reduced coal prices [1] Production and Sales - FY25 total sales volume was 21.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with core growth in牛卡纸 (110,000 tons), 白卡纸 (50,000 tons), and 文化纸 (40,000 tons) [1] - In 1HFY26, the company has launched 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 350,000 tons of cultural paper, and 700,000 tons of chemical pulp, with plans for an additional 350,000 tons of cultural paper [2] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the paper price recovery, estimating profits of 59 yuan/ton and 151 yuan/ton for 1HFY25 and 2HFY25 respectively, supported by improved industry demand and rising waste paper prices [3] - The company anticipates a slight increase in costs due to rising coal and waste paper prices, but expects a small recovery in profits for box board and corrugated paper from July to September [3] Capital Expenditure - FY25 capital expenditure was 14.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with continued pressure on free cash flow and a debt ratio of 66% [4] - For FY26, the company has guided a capital expenditure of 11 billion, which is higher than previous guidance [4]
中金：维持玖龙纸业(02689)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价升至7港元