A $450 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Right Now?

Core Viewpoint - Serve Robotics' stock has declined following Nvidia's divestment, but the company has significant long-term growth potential in the autonomous last-mile logistics market, projected to reach $450 billion by 2030 [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Nvidia invested $12 million in Serve Robotics between 2022 and 2024, which helped raise its profile on Wall Street [3]. - Serve Robotics develops autonomous delivery solutions, utilizing robots that have achieved Level 4 autonomy, allowing them to operate without human intervention [5]. Market Opportunity - The last-mile logistics sector is viewed as inefficient, with Serve Robotics aiming to capitalize on this by replacing human-driven deliveries with autonomous robots and drones [4]. - The company has a partnership with Uber Eats, deploying 2,000 Gen3 robots across several major cities, including Los Angeles and Miami [7]. Financial Performance - Serve Robotics reported only $642,000 in revenue for Q2 2025, which is low for a company valued at approximately $800 million [8]. - Analysts project Serve's revenue to increase to $3.6 million in 2025, a 99% increase from 2024, with potential to reach $80 million once all robots are operational [9]. Profitability and Cash Position - The company incurred a net loss of $39.2 million in 2024 and burned $33.7 million in the first half of 2025 [10]. - Serve had $183 million in cash at the end of Q2 2025, providing a runway for the next couple of years, but may need additional funding if profitability is not achieved [11]. Valuation Metrics - Serve Robotics has a high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 429, significantly higher than Nvidia's P/S ratio of 26 [12]. - If the company achieves its revenue target of $80 million, its forward P/S ratio would drop to around 10, which could be considered attractive [14]. Growth Potential - The addressable market for Serve Robotics is projected to grow to $450 billion by 2030, indicating substantial growth opportunities [15]. - However, the reliability of corporate guidance is uncertain, suggesting that investors may want to wait for evidence of successful scaling of the Gen3 robots before making investment decisions [16].