The Fed won't get ANYWHERE CLOSE to this, chief investment officer warns

Economic Data Overview - Initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, better than the expected 235,000, indicating a strong labor market [1] - Durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, surpassing consensus expectations, with non-defense business investment rising by 0.6% [2] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.8%, significantly higher than the anticipated 3.3%, suggesting robust economic activity [2] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Despite positive economic indicators, consumer sentiment appears mixed, with CarMax's stock plummeting 25% after missing revenue and earnings expectations, raising concerns about auto loan debt [3][4] - The housing market shows a disparity, with sales of million-dollar homes increasing while properties priced below $500,000 struggle [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Considerations - The market is concerned about inflation, with discussions on whether the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates in response to economic data [5] - The current economic environment is characterized as a two-tier economy, influenced heavily by asset markets, with a noted slowdown in consumer spending earlier in the year [6][7] - The cumulative number of unemployed workers has risen nearly 25% from its cycle low, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [9] Asset Prices and Inflationary Pressures - The significant rise in the S&P 500, up 85% over the past three years, is contributing to inflationary pressures, as wealth effects trickle down to consumer prices [11][14] - There is skepticism about a sustained high baseline inflation, with the potential for a downturn in stock prices to alleviate inflationary concerns [16]