智通财经网·2025-09-26 09:08Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government's export ban on cobalt is significantly impacting global supply, leading to a projected 34% decrease in effective global cobalt supply by 2025, from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons [1][2] Supply Impact - Cobalt imports to China from June to August 2025 have shown a continuous decline, with volumes of 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, reflecting month-on-month decreases of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [1][2] - The ongoing export ban, which began on February 22, 2025, has created significant disruptions in cobalt supply, with the possibility of further extensions to the ban [1][2] Demand Outlook - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the battery sector, despite weaker demand for ternary batteries. Emerging applications in drones and consumer electronics are anticipated to provide additional demand [2] - Under a neutral scenario, cobalt demand is projected to increase by 5.06% to 210,900 tons by 2025, supported by long-term growth in new sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics [2] Price Trends - Cobalt prices have risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the export restrictions were implemented [3] - Short-term supply disruptions are expected to continue, leading to further price increases, while the Congolese government's firm stance on supply control suggests strong long-term price support [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies in the cobalt sector with profit elasticity include Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Liqin Resources (02245), and Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) [4]