油价将遭重击？库尔德原油解封在即 维多有望接手出口

Core Viewpoint - Iraq is negotiating with Vitol, a major player in the oil transportation sector, to handle oil sales once Kurdish oil exports resume after a two-year halt, which could negatively impact Brent crude prices due to increased supply expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation and Agreements - Iraq's Kurdish region is expected to resume oil exports, potentially bringing approximately 230,000 barrels per day to the international market initially, with the possibility of increasing to 1 million barrels per day [2][8]. - The agreement involves Vitol receiving oil from Iraq's national oil marketing company, SOMO, for global sales, while maintaining the pricing authority with SOMO [6][7]. - The Kurdish authorities previously agreed to transfer control of oil sales to SOMO to facilitate funding from the federal government [6][7]. Group 2: Market Impact - The return of Kurdish oil is anticipated to exacerbate the existing oversupply in the global oil market, as indicated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2][8]. - Brent crude futures recently rose to around $70 per barrel, but the resumption of Kurdish oil exports could create downward pressure on prices due to increased supply [7][8]. - The IEA predicts that the supply-demand balance will lean towards oversupply in 2025 and may worsen in 2026, further complicating the market dynamics with the return of Kurdish oil [8].