特朗普要对药品加征100%关税，国产创新药将受什么影响？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on all branded and patented drugs starting October 1, 2023, with exemptions for companies building drug manufacturing plants in the U.S. [1][12] Drug Tariff Impact - The proposed tariff primarily targets branded pharmaceutical products and patented drugs, likely excluding generic drugs and biosimilars [2][4] - Branded drugs are typically sold under trademark names and can include both patented and off-patent products, which are often more expensive than generics [2][4] - Patented drugs are those still under patent protection, allowing only the original developer to produce and sell them [3][4] Export Data and Structure - In 2024, China's pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. are projected to reach $19.047 billion, with $6.425 billion in Western medicines and $0.87 billion in traditional Chinese medicine [4][5] - Raw materials account for 70.35% of China's pharmaceutical exports to the U.S., with $4.52 billion in raw material exports [4][5][6] Impact on Chinese Innovative Drugs - Several Chinese innovative drugs sold in the U.S. may be affected by the new tariffs, including products from companies like BeiGene and Legend Biotech [7][8] - The number of affected drugs is currently limited, with only a few Chinese companies having received FDA approval for their products [7][8] Global Manufacturing Trends - The new tariff policy is seen as an attempt to encourage pharmaceutical manufacturing to return to the U.S., with exemptions for companies already investing in U.S. production [11][12] - Major pharmaceutical companies have announced plans to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing, including companies like Eli Lilly, Novartis, and Roche [12][15] Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The global pharmaceutical manufacturing landscape has been shaped by cost-saving measures, with China and India becoming key players in raw material production [15][16] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for raw materials, with 80% of its raw materials sourced from China and India [18] - The geopolitical climate is prompting a shift towards localized production, as companies seek to mitigate tariff and geopolitical risks [19]