Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-26 12:05Core Viewpoint - The copper smelting industry in China is facing significant challenges due to "involution" competition, leading to persistently low copper concentrate processing fees, which has prompted industry associations to call for stricter control over smelting capacity expansion [1][2]. Industry Overview - The copper concentrate processing fee has been at historically low levels, with both long-term and spot prices remaining depressed, severely impacting profits in the smelting sector [1]. - The processing fee, which includes smelting and refining costs, has dropped significantly, with reports indicating that the spot processing fee fell to -$40 per ton by the end of June 2023 [2]. - Major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper have reported declines in net profits due to the low processing fees, with Tongling's net profit down 33.94% year-on-year [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in processing fees is primarily attributed to tightening copper concentrate supply, as the global supply-demand balance shifts from surplus to shortage [3]. - China's copper smelting capacity has been growing at a rate much faster than the supply of raw materials, leading to increased dependency on imports, which constitute over 80% of the copper ore supply [3]. - The production guidance for major copper mines has been revised downward, further tightening supply and leading to expectations of continued low processing fees [4]. Company Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, leading companies are focusing on cost reduction and enhancing the profitability of by-products to offset the impact of low processing fees [4]. - Yunnan Copper has reported a year-on-year net profit increase of over 24% by implementing cost-cutting measures and increasing the contribution of by-products like sulfuric acid, which saw a significant rise in gross margin [4].