ZACKSยท2025-09-26 12:21Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have reached all-time highs in 2025, with gains of approximately 12.5%, 16.1%, and 8.4% respectively as of September 25, 2025 [1] - Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best for the stock market, with the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq posting gains of 4.3%, 3.6%, and 4.7% respectively over the past three decades [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.8% pace in Q2 2025, driven by stronger consumer spending, marking an upward revision from a previously reported 3.3% growth [3] - Consumer spending rose by 2.5% in Q2 2025, significantly up from 0.6% in Q1, indicating a strong consumer spending pattern heading into the holiday season [4][5] Investment Trends - Significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) continue, with NVIDIA announcing plans for investments worth up to $100 billion in OpenAI and a $5 billion investment in Intel [6][7] - The AI sector is expected to drive Wall Street performance in the coming months due to ongoing mega-deals [7] Earnings Outlook - The overall trend for S&P 500 earnings estimates remains positive, with Q3 2025 earnings expected to rise by 5.2% year-over-year, supported by a 6.0% increase in revenues [9] Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are gaining momentum due to Fed rate cut hopes and a positive GDP outlook, making the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) a favorable investment [12] - The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is positioned well due to anticipated increases in long-term yields and favorable earnings revisions [13] - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is expected to benefit from the holiday season, with retail sales projected to increase by 2.9% to 3.4% in 2025 [14] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is gaining momentum due to the AI boom and expected higher heating demand in winter months [15]