美联储“谨慎降”阵营再添一员 巴尔金强调“软着陆”仍在把控之中

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite deviations in unemployment and inflation from the Federal Reserve's targets, the risks of further deterioration are limited, indicating a cautious stance on interest rate cuts rather than aggressive reductions [1][2] - Tom Barkin emphasizes the focus on achieving a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, balancing inflation and unemployment, and suggests that while both metrics are moving in the wrong direction, the downside risks are minimal [1][2] - The recent Federal Reserve decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points reflects growing concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with a long-term view of maintaining rates unchanged to assess the inflation risks from tariff policies [1][2][3] Group 2 - There is a significant internal division among FOMC policymakers regarding the future of interest rates, with some advocating for continued rate cuts to mitigate employment risks, while others express concerns about potential inflation [2] - The FOMC dot plot indicates a median forecast suggesting three rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one more next year, but also highlights a split among officials regarding the timing and necessity of these cuts [3] - Most Federal Reserve officials believe that given the current robust outlook for the U.S. economy, there is no need for substantial further rate cuts next year, despite some officials advocating for more decisive action in response to labor market weaknesses [2][3]