Core Insights - The Chinese bond market has experienced healthy and rapid development, significantly enhancing its international influence and attractiveness [1] - There is substantial potential for further opening of the Chinese bond market, with plans to accelerate the launch of RMB government bond futures in Hong Kong [1] Market Development - The proportion of net financing through bonds has increased from approximately 30% five years ago to over 40% currently [1] - The annual turnover rate of government bonds has risen from 2.4 to 3.8 over the past five years, indicating increased trading activity [1] - As of August 2025, the total balance of the Chinese bond market is projected to reach 192 trillion yuan, making it the second largest in the world [1] Investment Value - RMB bonds are showing strong investment value, with both short-term and long-term yields ranking among the highest globally [2] - The actual yield of RMB bonds remains relatively high even after adjusting for inflation, providing a good value retention and appreciation opportunity for global RMB holders [2] - RMB bonds exhibit low correlation with yields from G7 countries and other emerging markets, enhancing their diversification benefits [2] Liquidity and Trading Activity - RMB bond trading is active, with an average annual turnover rate close to 4 times for government and policy financial bonds, and some of the most active bonds seeing turnover rates near 150 times [2] - The bid-ask spreads for interest rate bonds have narrowed significantly, aligning closely with levels seen in developed markets [2] Foreign Investment and Market Access - Currently, foreign investors hold about 2% of the total bond market, indicating significant potential for further opening compared to developed economies [2] - Nearly 1,170 foreign institutional investors from around 80 countries have entered the Chinese bond market, with total holdings reaching approximately 3.9 trillion yuan, a nearly fourfold increase since the launch of the Bond Connect [3] Regulatory Support and Future Initiatives - The central bank is promoting the acceptance of mainland bonds as eligible collateral in Hong Kong and globally, enhancing their use in liquidity arrangements and derivative transactions [3] - Plans are in place to support various foreign institutional investors in conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market and to expand the "Swap Connect" quoting team [4]
央行：加快推进 人民币国债期货在港上市
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-25 23:33