NAND闪存迎来AI引爆的超级周期2026年价格看涨35%

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip industry is transitioning from oversupply to a critical shortage due to surging demand for nearline SSDs driven by AI applications, with cloud service providers placing orders significantly exceeding previous expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for nearline SSDs has skyrocketed, with cloud service providers placing orders of approximately 200EB, surpassing the earlier annual forecast of 150EB [1]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that NAND contract prices will approach double-digit percentage increases by Q4 2025, with further price hikes of 15-20% expected in the first half of 2026 [1]. - Major suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have announced production halts for DDR4 to focus on high-end products, leading to a supply gap in the traditional storage market [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Production - Despite the surge in demand, NAND manufacturers are maintaining strict capital discipline due to previous long-term losses, with capital expenditure for NAND wafer fab equipment projected to rise to $13.8 billion for 2026, still below the $15 billion bullish scenario [2][3]. - The focus on higher-margin DRAM business means that NAND capacity expansion is lagging behind [3]. Group 3: Chinese Market Influence - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) is expected to increase its global market share from 12% in 2025 to 15% in 2026, primarily serving domestic demand without initiating price wars [4]. - Global giants are exiting the low-end market in China, creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers like YMTC [4]. - The establishment of Changjiang Storage's third phase indicates accelerated capacity expansion in the domestic storage industry [4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities - Various segments of the NAND supply chain are poised to benefit from the price increases, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation showing signs of recovery with a 21.69% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2024 [5]. - Module manufacturers like Jiangbolong reported a 143.82% year-on-year revenue increase in H1 2024, benefiting from rising prices and demand [5]. - The domestic storage ecosystem is becoming increasingly robust, with emerging fields like AI smartphones and AIoT driving explosive demand for storage chips [5].