关键通胀指标即将出炉 美债收益率周五盘前下行为主

Core Insights - Investors are closely monitoring a key inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, expected to show an increase in inflation [3] - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, below expectations, and GDP growth for Q3 at 3.8%, exceeding forecasts [3] - Federal Reserve officials are divided on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for significant reductions while others caution against aggressive easing due to persistent inflation [4] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.4 basis points to 3.649%, the 10-year yield fell by 1 basis point to 4.164%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 1.1 basis points to 4.742% [1] - The PCE index is set to be released, which is a favored inflation measure by the Federal Reserve [3] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3% [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Perspectives - New Fed Governor Milan called for substantial rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points in upcoming meetings, totaling a 200 basis point cut [4] - Other Fed officials, including Bowman and Goolsbee, expressed concerns about the labor market's strength and inflation, advocating for more cautious rate adjustments [4] - The Chicago Fed President warned against significant rate cuts in the early stages of a new easing cycle due to inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [4] Group 3: Global Market Trends - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to lower rates further if necessary, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative rates [5] - European bond yields saw a general decline, with the 10-year German bond yield falling to 2.744% [5] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield rising to 1.653% [7] Group 4: Debt Market Insights - The U.S. federal public debt reached $37.45 trillion as of September 24, with short-term bonds comprising about 20% of this debt [8] - The International Institute of Finance reported that global debt hit a record high of $337.7 trillion by the end of Q2, influenced by a relaxed financial environment and a weaker dollar [7]