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【环球财经】美元持稳 日元承压徘徊于八周低点
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-26 14:24

Group 1: US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index is stable above 98, potentially recording the largest weekly gain in two months, as US economic growth data diminishes expectations for further Fed easing this year [1] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October has risen to approximately 12%, up from 8.1% the previous day; the cumulative rate cut expectation for the year has decreased to less than 40 basis points [1] - The upcoming release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated, with a year-on-year increase forecasted at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in July [1] Group 2: Currency Performance and Market Expectations - The Japanese yen has become one of the worst-performing currencies this week, dropping to an eight-week low due to its sensitivity to Fed's hawkish re-pricing, with market expectations for a 14 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan in October [1] - The overall inflation rate in Japan for September decreased to 2.5%, below the expected 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March [1] - ING predicts that the strong dollar will partially reverse if the market reaffirms expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the yen likely benefiting [2] Group 3: UK Economic Concerns and Currency Impact - The British pound has declined nearly 1% this week, following a 0.6% drop last week, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the month, driven by concerns over the UK's long-term fiscal outlook [3] - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds surged, marking the largest single-day increase since early July, reflecting market worries about fiscal conditions [3] - The UK Chancellor is expected to present a budget in November that may include additional tax measures to maintain fiscal rules and gain bond market trust, amid rising borrowing costs and high inflation limiting the Bank of England's rate cut capacity [3]