Accenture: Undervalued GenAI Leader or Snake Eating its Own Tail?

Core Viewpoint - Accenture's stock has experienced a significant decline in 2025, with a total return of approximately -33% as of September 25, leading to a historically low valuation multiple, presenting a potential recovery opportunity, particularly in its GenAI business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4, Accenture reported revenues of $17.60 billion, reflecting a 7.3% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $17.34 billion [2][3]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.03, an 8.6% growth, exceeding the anticipated $2.98, but the stock fell nearly 3% due to weak fiscal 2026 guidance [3][4]. Guidance and Market Sentiment - For fiscal 2026, Accenture projects revenue growth of 2% to 5% in local currency and adjusted EPS of $13.71 at the midpoint, slightly below analyst expectations of $13.78 [3][4]. - Despite a slight EPS beat, the market reacted negatively to the guidance, reflecting ongoing low sentiment towards the stock [4][11]. Booking Metrics - New bookings totaled $21.3 billion in Q4, a 6% increase in U.S. dollars, indicating stabilization after previous declines in bookings [6][7]. - GenAI bookings grew impressively to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion in Q3, totaling $5.9 billion for fiscal 2025, outperforming IBM's $5.5 billion in the same period [8]. Operating Margins - Accenture's adjusted operating margin increased by 10 basis points in Q4 and for the full year, which, while modest, is better than expected given the stock's decline [9]. Analyst Outlook - Analysts project a 12-month stock price forecast of $321.33, indicating a potential upside of 38.39%, although recent updates suggest a more conservative average target of $291, implying around 25% upside [10][11]. - The current market consensus suggests Accenture is undervalued, but sentiment remains low due to ongoing restructuring and concerns about the impact of GenAI on future business [11][12]. Restructuring and Challenges - Accenture is undergoing significant restructuring, expecting combined charges of $865 million in Q4 and fiscal Q1 2026, as it shifts its workforce towards GenAI capabilities [12]. - There are concerns that advancements in GenAI could lead clients to rely more on these tools rather than consulting Accenture, posing a long-term risk [13][14].