Core Insights - Bank of America (BAC) and Truist Financial (TFC) are positioned differently in the current interest rate environment, with BAC leveraging its scale and diversified services while TFC focuses on regional expansion and digital banking [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of America Analysis - BAC is expected to experience a modest decline in net interest income (NII) due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but projects NII to rise 6-7% in 2025, reaching $15.5-$15.7 billion in Q4 [3][4][11]. - The bank's expansion strategy and digital services, including Zelle and Erica, are anticipated to enhance customer relationships and drive NII growth over time [5][6]. - Operating expenses are expected to remain elevated due to the expansion plan, with non-interest expenses projected to rise moderately in 2025 [7]. Group 2: Truist Financial Analysis - TFC is less sensitive to interest rate changes and is focusing on strengthening its balance sheet and enhancing non-interest revenue sources following the divestiture of its insurance subsidiary [8][10]. - The company plans to open 100 new branches and renovate over 300 existing locations in high-growth cities over the next five years, while also investing in its business banking ecosystem [9]. - TFC expects nearly 3% NII growth in 2025, driven by loan growth and asset repricing, with management planning to reprice approximately $27 billion of fixed-rate loans and securities [12][13]. Group 3: Comparative Performance and Valuation - In terms of stock performance, TFC shares have risen 5.4% while BAC shares have increased by 17.9% this year, indicating BAC's stronger price performance [14]. - TFC is trading at a forward P/E of 10.76X, while BAC is at 12.6X, suggesting TFC is currently undervalued compared to BAC [15][16]. - BAC has a return on equity (ROE) of 10.25%, significantly higher than TFC's 8.69%, reflecting BAC's efficient use of shareholder funds [20]. Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BAC indicates earnings growth of 12.5% in 2025 and 15.9% in 2026, with upward revisions in the past week [22]. - For TFC, the earnings estimates indicate a rise of 4.3% in 2025 and 14.3% in 2026, with no changes in the past week [24]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Given the Fed's easing cycle, BAC is better positioned to capitalize on lower rates through its scale and diversified income streams, despite potential near-term expense increases [25]. - TFC, while offering a higher dividend yield, faces modest earnings growth and may appeal to value investors due to its discounted valuation [26].
Which Bank Stock to Buy as Fed Lowers Rate: Bank of America or Truist?