CME Outperforms Industry, Trades at a Discount: How to Play the Stock

Core Insights - CME Group Inc. shares have increased by 23.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 5.8%, the Finance sector's return of 17.2%, and the S&P 500 composite's appreciation of 17.6% [1] - CME Group's market capitalization stands at $96.84 billion, with an average trading volume of 2 million shares over the last three months [1] - The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, achieving this in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 1.62% [1] Valuation - CME Group shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.44X, which is lower than the industry average of 24.19X, indicating that the shares are undervalued [2] - Other companies in the sector, such as Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and Nasdaq, are also trading at discounts to the industry average, while Cboe Global Markets is trading at a higher multiple [3] Technical Analysis - CME shares closed at $268.73, trading above the 200-day simple moving average of $261.41, suggesting solid upward momentum [4] Revenue Drivers - CME's primary revenue source comes from clearing and transaction fees, which are bolstered by market volatility [7] - The growth in electronic trading and increased interest in cryptocurrencies are also contributing to revenue growth [7] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects an 8.7% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, with revenues expected to reach $6.53 billion, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year improvement [9] - For 2026, EPS and revenue estimates indicate increases of 3.6% and 4.7%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [9] Analyst Sentiment - Two out of eleven analysts have raised their earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 in the past 60 days, leading to a 0.2% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both years [10] Price Target - The average price target from 18 analysts is $286.17 per share, indicating a potential upside of 8.2% from the last closing price [11] Market Position - CME Group benefits from strong organic growth, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility, which increases trading activity and revenue from fees [13] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [14] Financial Performance - CME has demonstrated strong financial performance, with free cash flow conversion exceeding 85% in recent quarters, indicating solid earnings quality [15] - The company maintains a robust capital base that supports growth initiatives, including expanding its market data business and product offerings [15] Dividend Policy - CME Group has a strong dividend history, paying five dividends per year, with the fifth being variable based on excess cash flow, making it attractive for yield-seeking investors [16] Investment Outlook - Given its solid growth projections, attractive valuation, and positive analyst sentiment, CME Group is considered a compelling investment opportunity [17]