Foreign investors are sticking with US stocks amid Trump tariff turmoil

Core Viewpoint - Despite the recent "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by President Trump, foreign investors have maintained a strong allocation to US equities, with over 30% of their US financial assets in stocks, significantly above the long-term average of 19% [2][3]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - From the start of the year to the end of June, foreign investors allocated more than 30% of their US financial assets to equities, nearing record highs [2]. - The absence of a major shift in allocation is attributed to the market's rebound from April lows, where tariff news has not significantly impacted stocks [3]. - International equities have outperformed US stocks by as much as 17%, although this gap has narrowed to about 10% [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The US effective tariff rate is now closer to 9%, which is roughly half of the theoretical rate of 18%, indicating that various factors have mitigated the impact of higher tariffs [3]. - Falling interest rates and renewed optimism about US growth have contributed to stabilizing investor confidence [4]. - The expectations for the US market were extremely high at the beginning of the year, while international markets had low expectations, making them more sensitive to news [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Stocks sold off in April following the announcement of higher-than-expected tariffs, leading to a simultaneous decline in Treasurys and the dollar, which are typically seen as safe havens [6]. - The initial panic from the tariff news faded as companies managed the impact better than anticipated [3]. - The recent rhetoric from President Trump against the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the US economy [5].