Inflation and Tariffs - The inflation data indicates that core PCE is in line with previous months, with revisions showing lower figures [1][2] - Goods prices have only increased by about 5% to 6% since President Trump took office, with tariff effects showing an increase of well under 2% [2][6] - Ken Griffin from Citadel suggests that the inflationary impact of tariffs has only passed about 50% through the economy, indicating that further inflation is expected [3] Consumer Impact - There has been virtually no inflation in sectors like autos, clothing, and pharmaceuticals since April, although this may change in the future [5][6] - The relative price of imported goods is down compared to other products, suggesting that concerns about tariffs may be overstated [6][7] - The consumer is expected to bear the cost of tariffs, contrary to the belief that exporters or importers would absorb them [4][7] Economic Growth Indicators - Consumer spending numbers are strong, with GDP growth projected at around 4% following nearly 4% growth in the previous quarter [10][11] - The benefits from the tax bill have yet to be fully realized, but there is an expectation of increased consumer spending as wages grow faster than inflation [11][12] - The "real blue-collar wage boom" shows growth exceeding 1%, marking the fastest eight months of any president in history, contributing to increased consumer spending [12] Tax Legislation and Digital Economy - Recent tax legislation allows for early access to funds for consumers, particularly benefiting those in the service industry through changes in tip taxation [14][15] - The legislation also includes provisions for digital asset creators, such as YouTubers and podcasters, reflecting a shift towards accommodating the 21st-century economy [16]
People who worried about the tariffs were wrong, says Treasury Secretary counselor Joe LaVorgna
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